Growing the $10 seed

Discussion in 'Pro Tennis (Mens)' started by britbox, Apr 9, 2016.

  1. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Wetting a toe in the sports betting markets based on tennis.

    Aim is turn $10 into a lot more.... lol but going to try and double the money every week and see how far it goes.

    So End of Week 1 will need $20, end of Week 2 will need $40, end of Week 4 will need $80.... in the pot (or roughly that figure)

    Week 1 so far - The path to $20:

    Bet365 - Deposit $10. First bet Azarenka to win Miami Final.

    Bets Stake Return Winnings Tally
    Azarenka @ 1.2 10 12 2 12
    Boca Juniors @ 1.008 12 12.1 0.1 12.1
    Paolo Lorenzi @ 1.53 1 0 -1 11.1
    Novak Djokovic @ 1.14 1.14 1.31 0.17 11.27
    Borna Coric @ 1.44 (VOID W/O) 5.5 5.5 0 11.27
    Ching-Wen Hsu @ 1.40 3 4.2 1.2 12.47
    Alejandro Gonzalez @ 1.30 6 7.8 1.8 14.27
    Temur Ismailov @ 2.05 1 0 -1 13.27
    Tommy Paul @ 29.00 0.25 0 -0.25 13.02
    Borna Coric @ 1.8 5 9 4 17.02
    Frederico Delbonis @ 1.25 7.02 8.78 1.76 18.78
    Borna Coric @ 1.72 9 15.55 6.55 25.33
    I liked the Crownbet offering of $150 free bets if you deposit $50 when you open an account (at least in QLD, I think WA is excluded from that offer @Bert)

    The plan was not to use the $50 deposited amount and rely on the free bets.

    The way the free bets work is that if you bet $150, you only get the winnings, not the stake money back... So it you bet $150 of the free bets on something at 1.2 for instance, you'd get a $180 return of which $30 are the winnings.

    The $30 are yours but you cannot withdraw it unless you make a further bet equal or larger to the winnings (i.e. $30)... and you have to make that bet on something with odds of 1.5 or greater. if you succeed then the subsequent winnings are yours without conditions.

    So, I put the $150 worth of free bets on Delbonis to beat Montanes at 1.28. This came in and I got a return of $42.

    The money isn't really mine yet as I have to make a subsequent bet on odds of over 1.5 (basically a chance for the house to get their money back).

    I laid the $42 on Coric to take Veseley at 1.77 and this came in and returned a win of $74.34. Withdrew the original deposit of $50, so sitting on $74.34 (Crownbet) and $25.33 (Betfair).

    Opening Balance 50
    Frederico Delbonis @ 1.28 150 192 42 92
    Borna Coric @ 1.77 42 74.34 32.34 124.34
    Withdrawal Original Stake 50 0 -50 74.34
    Aim was to double the $10 this week, and have $99.67 in total, so a good week. Will still follow the original plan of $20, $40, $80, $160 double the money per week, so I've got wiggle room to the end of Week 3.

    Week 1 Target: $20
    Week 1 Results: $99.67


    No doubt will have some bad weeks on this adventure, but still only plan on not going beyond that $10 original deposit.


    cb1.png bf2.png bf1.png
     
  2. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    Good luck @britbox !

    I am looking forward to hearing about this journey. And the more money you make, the more drinks you will pay us :dance2:
     
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  3. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    How is it going this week ? Made some money ?
     
  4. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    At the moment I am $3 down from last week.
     
  5. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    You managed to limit the losses better than me :)
     
  6. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    I need a Monfils win to put me back in a positive tally for the week.
     
  7. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    Good luck. Berdych makes me cry today. Hope he will win this one... scary
     
  8. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Week 2:

    Got wiped out on the Betfair account, losing 25.33, most heavily when chasing Djokovic in in-match bets as I thought Veseley would bottle it. Also lost on Fognini, Herbert.

    Improved on the Crownbet, too, moving that from 74.34 to $96.75, lost also chasing Djokovic and also lost on Fognini. Recovered with some more aggressive bets on Monfils (over Granollers), Nadal (over Murray) and Nadal (over Monfils) to save the day.

    Week 2 Target: $40
    Week 2 Overall Tally: $96.75


    Down a tad from last week but learned a couple of lessons in the process.
     

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  9. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Week 3:

    Nightmare on Danka Kovinic Street
    was this weeks movie. Went $48.50 on her to win and lost the lot. @Bert gave me some nice intel on the match but I'd already laid out. The main one being she was playing on home turf and the crowd would be all in.... and the crowd were wild. A band playing, chanting, singing.... like a Davis Cup match on steroids. Everything Kovinic missed was met with thunderous applause as if she'd scored a last minute goal in the cup final. Kovinic got rattled and then came apart... not to take anything away from Cagla Buyukakcay who also rose to the occasion, but if this had been played anywhere else I'm fairly certain Kovinic would have prevailed.

    Lesson learned: Check out the background scenario.

    Couple of other losses... Baghdatis lost to Marco Cecchinato, costing another $20. No lessons from this... Bagman just played crap which was a surprise after he'd been playing so well in recent weeks.

    Paolo Lorenzi v Taro Daniel - lost another $15. Lesson learned: Don't bet on Lorenzi again and Daniel is not as far ahead as I thought he was.

    Had a few nice wins mixed in, but those three blew me out. Back down to $40 in the pot.

    Week 3 Target: $80
    Week 3 Overall Tally: $40


    If Kovinic had come in at 1.46, I'd be on $110.81 up but c'est la vie.

    Will take a few weeks to get back on schedule now, as the target ramps up.
     
  10. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    Bad luck @britbox. Haven't watched the game but I can imagine that the crowd went crazy :)

    On a positive note, you are still +30$ from your starting 10$. What's your correct picks % ? I've never managed to exceed 60-65% on the long term.
     
  11. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    60% last week. Probably the lowest to date, but I'll probably be around those parameters. Need to get the last couple of weeks into update the spreadsheet.
     
  12. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Quiet week for me on the bets front. Just increased slightly from:

    $40 to $44.22

    Doubling the money each week is not realistic and it's led to cavalier bets on stupid matches. I'm going to aim for a positive 15% return each week and be more selective. So looking to get upto $50/$51 next week.
     
  13. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Well, the sapling has turned back into a seed. Back down to $19.20 after going after Nadal/Murray. Only had a small bet at first then got excited and went after it on a bigger scale with the in-match Live Betting.
     
  14. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Modest increase for the sapling last week. Moving up to $21.19 . Unlikely to have any bets until Roland Garros as I don't know how hard some of the players are willing to graft with RG in sight. Maybe bet on some RG Qualifiers.
     
  15. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Not had a punt for a few weeks since a poor French Open, the britbox sapling got hammered in the WTA and is officially in decline and in negative - $9.13

    New rules for Wimbledon... avoid women's tennis.
     
  16. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Sousa's loss officially wipes out my $10. :rip:

    $10 Episode 2 starts tomorrow!
     
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