Gambles: Monte Carlo

Discussion in 'Pro Tennis (Mens)' started by britbox, Apr 10, 2016.

  1. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    bet365 offering on outright win

    Djokovic 1.61
    Murray 8
    Nadal 9
    Federer 9.5
    Wawrinka 13
    Raonic 21
    Thiem 26
    Berdych 26

    If you move against Djokovic there are a few good value bets there I think... even staying with Djokovic isn't too bad at 1.61

    I'd avoid Murray because he isn't winning this outright and I don't think Federer is either. Take Berdych out of the picture also.

    Leaves Nadal 9, Wawrinka 13, Raonic 21, Thiem 26. If I was betting against Djokovic I'd be tempted to lay on Nadal, Wawrinka and Thiem.
     
  2. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    I took Thiem @31 on Unibet. I put 1$ on him. He should play Nadal, Wawrinka, Murray and Djokovic. Odds against Nadal and Wawrinka should be pretty even and even if Murray and Djokovic will be given as favourite against him, odds should not be too low. That means taking Thiem @31 should allow to bet on Nadal, Waw, Murray and Djokovic and make some money.

    That's the plan :)
     
  3. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Sounds good bert - although I'm going to leave Murray out of the equation. I think I'll go fairly small on Nadal, Stan and Thiem.
     
  4. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Took Simon over Troicki in R1
     
  5. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    I think Kuznetsov will win against Chardy but odds are very short and playing in Monaco may be an extra motivation for the French. First game on clay for both. Looks pretty sure for Kuz but odds are not exciting enough.
    For Simon - Troicki stats may look a bit too good for Simon IMO : he leads 5-0 against Troicki but last match was 5 years ago and but he didn't show much this season and this seems to me a bit risky compared to the short odds.

    Will wait for tomorrow to bet some money.
     
  6. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Outside of Sydney, Troicki has been pretty flakey too. I tend to think players like Simon and Goffin are guys he doesn't enjoy playing and he can beat himself.
     
  7. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    Agree. I like looking at H2H records as sometimes it gives a good indication on how a player can be unable to find the key against another one. 5-0 without having ever won a set is a pretty good indication that he doesn't like Simon's game :)
     
  8. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    There is one very tempting bet today : Cervantes-Paire. Paire has been really disappointing this season : 7w / 10l including 6 losses against players outside Top50. The only significant win is Wawrinka in 3 sets in Marseille, all other were people outside Top50. Cervantes is ranked #56 and clay is his best surface. They played 4 times against each other and all went in 3 sets. Cervantes @ 2.45 is very, very tempting :)
     
  9. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Paire squeaked it in a deciding tie-break - tough one!

    I had Veseley to beat Gabasvilli which has just come in (another close one) and have Fognini and Goffin to win.
     
  10. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Fognini might be the bigger risk as he's just coming back.
     
  11. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    Yes hard to know what's his fitness level. But his records against Lorenzi are very good
     
  12. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Just placed an in-match bet on Herbert at @3.75 - not bad odds considering they are tied in the third.
     
  13. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    Good idea. I think I will have all wrong in my pre-match analysis so maybe limit myself in live betting tonight :) There are days you feel this is not your day :)
     
  14. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Well, Murray has just broken... so it's probably going to go against me... but I do like the in-match betting - gives you a chance to get a feel for the matchup and how they are playing. I nearly cashed out Veseley earlier with a loss but hung in there and he came good.
     
  15. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    I am tempted by a combined bet today (I try to avoid these but this is very tempting with today's odds) :
    Berdych + Nadal + Thiem + Zverev + Monfils = 2.08

    Seems a good one to pick. What do you think ?
     
  16. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    Don't know if you went for it... but the odds still seemed a little low even with the hindsight of Berdych losing.
     
  17. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    Yes went for it without Zverev who seemed to me less sure than the other ones... bad day.

    I am curious to see the odds for Nadal-Thiem tomorrow. Who will be set as the favourite ?
     
  18. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    I would think Nadal would be favourite... even if he isn't early by the weight of money that ends up backing him. You might want to wait until last minute to get the best odds on Thiem.
     
  19. britbox

    britbox Multiple Major Winner

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    ...but very interesting clash. I'm looking forward to watching it... I probably won't bet on it.
     
  20. Bert

    Bert Masters Champion

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    Yes will be a great match to watch... not easy to pick a winner.
     
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